Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 22 2025 - 12Z Wed Apr 23 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS AND/OR THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN PLAINS...

Largely maintained a Marginal Risk area over portions of the
Southern Plains from Tuesday into early Wednesday morning due to
the suite of 00Z numerical guidance continuing to show the
potential for repeat/training of cells during the day and with
overnight activity within an emerging moist and unstable return
flow into and over several frontal boundaries. With the models
struggling to latch onto a coherent signal...as shown by some
guidance focusing heaviest QPF near the Gulf coast in proximity to
a weakening cold front and other guidance developing the threat
closer to the Red River in response to the approach of a mid-level
wave...have opted to highlight concern for excessive rainfall in
broad and rather unfocused Marginal Risk area close to a consensus
placement of the precipitable water axis. With PW values generally
being 1.25 inches or less...would not be expected numerous
torrential downpours. The cumulative effect of what has already
fallen from this weekends event and what falls on Tuesday/early
Wednesday needs to be watched.

Bann
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt