Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 23 2025 - 12Z Sat Oct 25 2025

...Heavy rain and severe weather threats emerge and expand across the
south Plains to the Arklatex Thursday night through Saturday morning...

...Unsettled weather with locally heavy rain reaching the Pacific
Northwest on Friday followed by another round early Saturday...

...Chilly and showery weather across the Great Lakes will gradually taper
off through the next couple of days...

A low pressure system containing multiple vortices continues to be the
impetus for bringing unsettled weather across the Great Lakes into the
Northeast.  This system will continue to take its time exiting into
eastern Canada.  Showery weather across the Great Lakes will still be
common today but the showers are expected to be less numerous than 
yesterday.  A couple of thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either.  As 
the system slowly edges away into eastern Canada, these showers are 
expected to gradually taper off from west to east later on Friday into 
Saturday morning.  Meanwhile, chillier and drier weather along with 
gusty winds will expand from the Midwest and Ohio Valley into the 
Mid-Atlantic as a high pressure ridge builds in from the Northern Plains.

Across the Northwest, heavy rainfall is forecast to approach the area
Friday morning ahead of the arrival of the main Pacific front.  The first
significant round of rainfall is forecast to arrive on Friday.  This will
be followed by another round arriving Saturday morning with locally heavy
rain possible in both rounds of rain especially along the coast of the
Pacific Northwest.

Farther south, scattered thunderstorms tied to a shortwave trough are
moving across the Great Basin and Four Corners today.  The rain will be
largely beneficial as this region remains under drought conditions.  By
tonight into Friday morning, the shortwave trough will begin heading
toward the southern High Plains.  This will lead to showers and
thunderstorms developing over the south-central Plains ahead of a warm
front and a developing surface low.  The rain will then expand across the
region with an increasing threat of heavy rainfall Friday morning.  By
later on Friday into Saturday morning, much of Texas and Oklahoma will
likely see showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread as
additional shortwave impulses interact with moisture returning from the
western Gulf.  Both WPC and the Storm Prediction Center have respectively
issued a slight risk for flash flooding and severe thunderstorms to occur
in this general area from Thursday night through much of Friday.  By
Saturday morning, the heavy rain threat is expected to shift east toward
the Arklatex and the western Gulf Coast from upper Texas coast to
southwestern Louisiana.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php