Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 24 2025 - 00Z Sun Oct 26 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains on Friday and Lower Mississippi Valley and Western Gulf Coast on
Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Friday and Saturday....

...Light snow over parts of the Cascades, Sawtooth Mountains, and Central
Rockies from Thursday into Saturday...

A weak front over the Southern Plains and moisture coming northward off
the Gulf will aid in producing showers and severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Southern Plains on Thursday into Friday. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains through Friday morning.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, snow will develop over the highest
elevations of the Central Rockies overnight Thursday.

Similarly, conditions will persist over the Southern Plains on Friday as
showers and severe thunderstorms develop. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern
Plains from Friday through Saturday morning.  The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southern Plains from Friday
through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Moreover, on Saturday, the front and the pooling moisture will continue to
develop showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday.  The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Further, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas
being the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a front moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest overnight
Thursday, traveling to the Northern High Plains by Saturday evening. Light
rain will develop over the Pacific Northwest Coast on Friday and expand
inland to the Northern Intermountain Region by Saturday and into
Northern/Central California. Overnight Friday, snow develops over the
highest elevations of the Cascades and Sawtooth Mountains, continuing into
Saturday evening. Another front will move onshore over the Northwest on
Saturday, continuing the rain.

Elsewhere, an upper-level trough extending from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast will produce scattered rain and showers over the Great Lakes to
the Northeast through Saturday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php