Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 24 2025 - 12Z Sun Oct 26 2025

...Widespread showers and thunderstorms to bring a flash flood and severe
weather threat from the southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...A Pacific system accompanied by an influx of moisture/atmospheric river
will bring lower elevation heavy rain and mountain snow to the Pacific
Northwest heading into the weekend...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to not only continue but expand in
coverage Friday ahead of an upper-low and associated surface frontal
system moving into the southern Plains. Plentiful moist Gulf return flow
will help to fuel heavy downpours with rain rates as high as 2" per hour.
Embedded upper energies will help to support multiple rounds of storms,
potentially organized, increasing the risk for several inches of rainfall.
Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) have been outlined across
portions of the southern Plains Friday and from the ArkLaTex/eastern Texas
to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday for the threat of scattered flash
flooding, especially for regions that receive multiple rounds of rainfall
given the generally dry antecedent conditions. In addition, the warm,
moist air and approaching upper-low will provide sufficient instability
and upper-level shear to support severe thunderstorms. The Storm
Prediction Center has included Slight Risks for severe weather (level 2/5)
for western to central Texas Friday and central Texas to southern
Louisiana Saturday for the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes.

To the west, an influx of moist Pacific Air/atmospheric river head of an
approaching upper-trough and associated surface frontal system will bring
heavy coastal/lower elevation rain and high elevation mountain snow to the
Pacific Northwest and northern California heading into the weekend.
Isolated instances of flooding will be possible along upslope portions of
the coastal Ranges and Cascades. Several inches of heavy mountain snow is
also forecast for the higher elevations of the Olympics and Cascades,
especially heading into Saturday as cooler air flows inland behind a cold
front and snow-levels drop. Precipitation is also expected to expand into
the northern Great Basin/Rockies into Saturday as the system continues
inland, with lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow. Temperatures
should remain warm enough that any chances for some snow to mix in for
higher mountain valleys will hold off until Sunday, though only minor
accumulations are expected. Some gusty winds will also be possible with
the system.

Elsewhere, lake-effect showers will continue downwind of Lakes Erie and
Ontario Friday as cool post-frontal northwesterly flow moves over the
warmer lake waters. The rest of the country will be mostly dry.
Temperature-wise, conditions will remain around or a bit below average
from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the East Coast following a cold front
passage, with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s. Widespread lows in the
lower to mid-30s Friday morning have prompted Frost and Freeze-related
Advisories and Warnings from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic. Cooler air lingering north of the upper-low over the
southern Plains will keep conditions cool throughout the central Plains to
Mississippi Valley with highs in the 50s and 60s here as well. The
Southeast to southern Plains will remain warmer and at or above average,
with highs in the 70s and 80s. Some well above average, near record
tying/breaking high temperatures into the 90s continue for southern Texas.
An upper-level ridge expanding northward from the Interior West into the
northern Plains will bring well above average highs, particularly for the
northern tier locations, with 60s and even some 70s possible. The Pacific
system moving into the West Coast will bring well below average
temperatures heading into the weekend, with highs dropping into the 50s
and 60s.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php