Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 25 2025 - 00Z Mon Oct 27 2025

...Widespread showers and thunderstorms to bring a flash flood and severe
weather threat from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...A Pacific system accompanied by an influx of moisture/atmospheric river
will bring lower elevation heavy rain and mountain snow to the Pacific
Northwest this weekend...

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today across the
Southern Plains as plentiful Gulf moisture returns northward ahead of an
upper-level trough and associated frontal system. A Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is outlined across portions of the southern
Plains today, and over the ArkLaTex/eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi
Valley Saturday for the threat of scattered flash flooding with these
storms. Severe weather is also a concern with this activity, and the Storm
Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5)
for portions of Texas today, which shifts east toward the Lower
Mississippi Valley tomorrow for the threat of large hail, damaging winds,
and a few tornadoes.

To the west, heavy coastal rain and high elevation mountain snow from an
early-season atmospheric river is forecast across the Pacific Northwest
and northern California. Isolated instances of flooding will be possible
along upslope portions of the coastal Ranges and Cascades. Several inches
of mountain snow are expected atop the higher elevations of the Olympics
and Cascades heading into Saturday as cool air flows inland behind a cold
front, where Winter Weather Advisories are in effect. Ahead of the front,
precipitation will expand into the northern Great Basin/Rockies as the
system continues inland, with lower elevation rain and higher elevation
snow. Temperatures should remain warm enough that any chances for some
snow to mix in for higher mountain valleys will hold off until Sunday,
though only minor accumulations are expected. Some gusty winds will also
be possible with the system. Unsettled weather will continue beyond
Saturday as another system arrives in the Pacific Northwest, ushering in
additional chances of isolated flooding and high-elevation snows on Sunday.

Elsewhere, lake-effect showers will continue downwind of Lakes Erie and
Ontario Friday as cool post-frontal northwesterly flow moves over the
warmer lake waters. Temperature-wise, conditions will remain around or a
bit below average from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the East Coast
following a cold front passage, with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s.
Cooler air lingering north of the upper-low over the southern Plains will
keep conditions cool throughout the central Plains to Mississippi Valley
with highs in the 50s and 60s here as well. The Southeast to southern
Plains will remain warmer and at or above average, with highs in the 70s
and 80s. Some well above average, near record tying/breaking high
temperatures into the 90s continue for southern Texas. An upper-level
ridge expanding northward from the Interior West into the northern Plains
will bring well above average highs, particularly for the northern tier
locations, with 60s and even some 70s possible. The Pacific system moving
into the West Coast will bring well below average temperatures heading
into the weekend, with highs dropping into the 50s and 60s.

Asherman/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php