Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 25 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 27 2025

...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring a flash
flood and severe weather threat from the Southern Plains to the Lower
Mississippi Valley Saturday...

...Atmospheric river activity across the Pacific Northwest continues into
the weekend with heavy lower elevation rain and mountain snow expected...

An energetic upper-wave and accompanying surface frontal system will
continue to support multiple organized clusters of thunderstorms Saturday
from the Southern Plains east through the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi
Valley. Very moist, southerly Gulf flow aided by a strong low-level jet
will fuel heavy rain-producing storms with rain rates upwards of 2" per
hour. The multiple rounds of storms may lead to rainfall totals as high as
3-5 inches, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect
from eastern Texas/the ArkLaTex east to the Lower Mississippi Valley for
the threat of some scattered instances of flash flooding. In addition,
moderate instability and sufficient shear as winds increase with the
passing upper wave will support some more robust, severe thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has also included a Slight Risk of severe
weather (level 2/5) from central Texas east to the Lower Mississippi
Valley for the threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes. The system will continue east Sunday with storms spreading into
the Southeast. More limited instability with the bulk of precipitation
expected on the cooler side of the frontal system should keep the threat
of flash flooding and severe weather isolated, but widespread moderate to
locally heavy rainfall is still expected, especially where more
instability will be located along the central Gulf Coast.

To the west, a series of Pacific storm systems bringing an influx of
Pacific moisture/atmospheric river will continue to lead to heavy coastal
and lower elevation rain and high elevation mountain snow across the
Pacific Northwest/northern California this weekend. Some isolated flash
flooding could occur Saturday along upslope regions of the coastal ranges
and Cascades, with the risk diminishing on Sunday as cold front passages
bring cooler, drier air, reducing heavy rainfall chances. Precipitation
chances will spread further inland with the system(s) across the northern
Great Basin/Rockies Saturday and into the northern Plains by Sunday with
similar expectations for mainly lower elevation rain and higher elevation
snow. Some snow may mix in for higher mountain valleys in the northern
Rockies Sunday-Monday, but little to no accumulations are anticipated.
Very strong, gusty winds are also expected, especially along the Pacific
Coast and into some of the higher elevations of the northern Rockies.

Elsewhere, some daily thunderstorm activity can be expected along the
Atlantic coast of Florida with a lingering front nearby. Daily lake-effect
showers and thunderstorms downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario should
finally begin to taper off Saturday and especially into Sunday.
Temperatures will generally be near to below Fall averages from the East
Coast west through the Great Lakes, Ohio to Middle Mississippi Valleys,
and central Plains with post-frontal high pressure in place, as highs
remain mainly in the 50s and 60s. Cooler temperatures will also come to
much of the Southeast by Sunday following a cold front passage, with highs
dropping into the 60s. Warmer, above average temperatures will remain
mostly shunted to Florida, the Gulf Coast, and Texas, with highs in the
70s and 80s. A pocket of well above average highs into the 90s continues
for south Texas, where a couple daily record highs could be matched or
broken. Upper-ridging stretching from portions of the interior West into
the northern Plains will continue to bring well above average highs this
weekend, with 60s and even some 70s likely. Multiple cold front passages
across the Pacific Northwest/northern California into the Great Basin will
bring well below average temperatures, with highs mainly in the 40s and
50s. 

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php