Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 23 2025 - 00Z Sat Oct 25 2025

...Chilly and showery weather across the Great Lakes tonight...

...Heavy rain threat emerges across the south-central Plains Thursday
night...


Unsettled weather is expected to continue from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast for the next couple of days as a low pressure system containing
multiple vortices will be slow to exit.  As cold air associated with an
upper-level low moves across, the instability will support showers and
scattered areas of rain.  The low pressure wave will lift northward into
the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday night, allowing much of the rain over New
England to taper off by then.  However, more chilly and showery weather is
expected to continue through Thursday across the Great Lakes before a
drying trend sets in Thursday night when the system weakens and pushes
away into Canada.  Meanwhile, colder and drier weather along with gusty
winds will expand from the Midwest and Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
as a high pressure ridge builds in from the Northern Plains.

Across the Northwest, heavy rainfall is forecast to approach the area
Friday morning ahead of the arrival of the main Pacific front.  Farther
south, scattered thunderstorms tied to a shortwave trough are expected
across the Great Basin and Four Corners on Thursday, which will be largely
beneficial as this region remains under drought conditions.  By Thursday
night into Friday morning, the shortwave trough will begin heading toward
the southern High Plains.  This will lead to showers and thunderstorms
developing over the south-central Plains ahead of a warm front and a
developing surface low.  The rain will then expand across the region with
an increasing threat of heavy rainfall by Friday morning.

Kebede/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php