Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Apr 19 2025 - 12Z Mon Apr 21 2025

...Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Central/Southern Rockies on
Saturday...

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley to the Southern Plains on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains on Saturday and an
Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley on Sunday...

A front extending from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and then across the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains will move
eastward off the Northeast Coast and from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern
Plains by Sunday morning. On Saturday, the system will produce showers and
thunderstorms from parts of the Northeast to the Southern Plains and
severe thunderstorms from the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley to the
Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley
to the Southern Plains through Sunday morning.  The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Furthermore, there is an added threat of
hail, two inches or greater, over the Southern Plains.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains on
Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the
Southern Plains through Sunday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are
possible and many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

Further, an upper-level low associated with the western end of the front
will produce moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Central/Southern
Rockies. Rain will also develop over the lower elevations of the Southwest
and Central High Plains. The snow will end over the region by Sunday
morning.

On Sunday, a wave of low pressure along the boundary moves northward from
the Southern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley by Monday morning. 
The front will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley from Sunday into Monday morning.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease on Sunday over
parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley to a Marginal Risk. Moreover,
showers and thunderstorms will expand into the Great Lakes/ Ohio Valley.
Furthermore, an area of wet snow will develop near Lake Superior on Monday
morning.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, a front over the Pacific Northwest will move
eastward to the Northern High Plains to the Northern Intermountain
Region/Great Basin and dissipate by Sunday morning. The system will
produce light rain over parts of the Northwest, moving into the Northern
Intermountain Region by Saturday evening. By Sunday morning, additional
light rain will move into the Pacific Northwest. As the associated energy
moves eastward, rain and highest elevation snow will develop over parts of
the Northern Intermountain Region and Northern Rockies overnight Sunday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php