Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 31 2026 - 12Z Wed Sep 02 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great
Basin on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic on
Tuesday...

Monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of the Great Basin through Monday. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Great Basin on Monday.  The Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall means numerous flash flooding events are possible; many streams
may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers, and flooding may include
debris flows in or near recently burned areas.  In addition, numerous
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest, Central/Southern
Rockies, and Central Plains may produce flash flooding.

Furthermore, a front will move from the Northern/Central Plains/Central
Rockies to the Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley/Northern High Plains
by Wednesday morning. The boundary will produce showers and thunderstorms
from the Great Lakes southwestward to the Central Plains on Monday.

On Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Central
Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Over the Lower Great Lakes, Northeast,
and Northern Mid-Atlantic, the showers and thunderstorms will become
severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern
Mid-Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Moreover, weak low pressure over the Western/Central Gulf Coast will
produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the region.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms over the Western/Central Gulf Coast on
Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable, and landslides on roads.
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the coast from
the Southeast/Florida to the Central/Western Gulf Coast Monday through
Wednesday morning.

Additionally, a weakening front will approach the Northwest Coast by early
Tuesday morning, producing rain over the area that will expand inland to
the Northern Intermountain Region by Tuesday afternoon into early
Wednesday. Lastly, heat will build over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Monday into Tuesday. In response,
Heat Advisories have been posted over the region.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php