Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 26 2025 - 00Z Tue Oct 28 2025

...Atmospheric river activity across the Pacific Northwest continues
through Sunday with heavy lower elevation rain and hazardous mountain snow
expected...

...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring a flash
flood and severe weather threat from the Southern Plains to the Lower
Mississippi Valley today and into Sunday...

...Coastal storm to generate periods of rain and thunderstorms in the
Southeast on Monday; generally drier than normal and cooler than normal
temperatures continue in the Northeast; warmer than normal in the
Southwest...

An active weather pattern will produce unsettled weather from the
Northwest and Northern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast. Starting in the Northwest, a large upper-level trough will
escort a pair of Pacific storm systems and a potent atmospheric river from
the Pacific Northwest coast to the Northern Rockies today and through
Sunday. As the first storm system currently impacting the Northwest winds
down Sunday morning, a second storm system will track into northern
California and bring additional rounds of rain and mountain snow from the
Cascades and northern California to the northern Rockies through Monday
morning. Some weak upslope flow in to the Cascades and Northern Rockies
may linger through Monday afternoon, but the heaviest precipitation
concludes Monday morning. Over an inch of rainfall is expected along
portions the Pacific Northwest coast and elevations below 3,000ft. Along
the higher elevations of the Cascades and northern Rockies, Winter Weather
Advisories have been posted for anywhere from 4-12" of snow (higher
amounts in higher elevations) with likelihood for hazardous travel
conditions in affected areas. The upper trough will also keep the
northwestern U.S. unseasonably cool into the start of next week.

Across the South, a storm system tapping into rich Gulf moisture has been
the catalyst for generating strong-to-severe thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall from the Southern Plains to the Deep South. Through tonight, WPC
maintains a Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) for Excessive Rainfall from
east Texas to the Mississippi Delta region. The Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) also has a Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) from the eastern reaches
of the Texas Hill Country to southern Louisiana with all modes of severe
weather (tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, large hail) all possible. The
storm system makes its way east tomorrow with the a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall in place along the central Gulf Coast and a Marginal
Risk (threat level 1/4) that stretches from the Gulf Coast to as far north
as the Middle Mississippi Valley. SPC also has a Marginal Risk along the
central Gulf Coast on Sunday with severe storms potentially producing
damaging winds gusts and tornadoes.

By Monday, the storm system in the Deep South will spawn a secondary area
of low pressure along the Southeast coast that results in widespread
showers and thunderstorms over the Southeast. WPC maintains a Marginal
Risk for parts of Georgia and South Carolinas where localized areas of
flash flooding are possible. Meanwhile, the storm system that ushered in
the atmospheric river this weekend heads for the Great Plains, resulting
in showers and thunderstorms developing out ahead of and along an
approaching cold front. Elsewhere, aside from some hit-or-miss showers in
the Northeast this afternoon, high pressure over the Great Lakes and
Northeast will remain steadfast in its control of these regions and
maintain mostly dry conditions. Seasonally cool temperatures will also
continue in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and in the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys. The warmest regions compared to normal will be in the Southwest
and through south Texas where day time highs will be in the 80s and in the
90s in some cases closer to the US/Mexico border. The Upper Midwest will
also witness above average temperatures with highs reaching the 60s in the
Dakotas and Minnesota on Sunday.

Mullinax

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php