Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
453 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 00Z Tue 01 Sep 2026 - 00Z Tue 08 Sep 2026

Latest models and ensembles continue to show a stable trade wind 
pattern persisting through Tuesday, as strong high pressure to 
the north of the state supports moderate to gusty east to 
northeasterly trades with shower activity limited to the typical 
windward and mauka areas. Given the latest guidance, moisture
drawn in north of Tropical Storm Lowell could clip at least the 
Big Island and Maui by Wednesday, with above-normal PWATs (around
2 inches) expected across the entire island chain Thursday and 
Friday, even as Lowell tracks south of the state. Even without a 
direct impact from Lowell's main rain bands, the increase in deep-
layer moisture and disruption of the trades will likely increase 
the rain chances/coverage across the islands, including the 
typically drier leeward areas. Please refer to the National 
Hurricane Center for more information regarding the forecast track
and intensity of Tropical Storm Lowell as well as Hurricane 
Karina.

Hurley