Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
610 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 12Z Sat 25 Oct 2025 - 12Z Wed 29 Oct 2025


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Guidance continues to show relatively good agreement on the 
overall large scale pattern, albeit with expected uncertainty in 
the details. Best forecast clustering is evident this period over
the weekend into Monday when a 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian
model blend is favored to mitigate lingering smaller scale
differences consistent with individual predictability. Opted to
switch to preference of compatible 12 UTC ECMWF/NAEFS ensemble 
means at longer time frames amid quickly growing forecast spread
and lowering predictability. This solution offers a moderate 
depiction of a possibly deeper low over the eastern Gulf of 
Alaska with a centroid position between deeper 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF 
explicit solutions in an uncertain but overall favorable pattern.

...Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A main upper low will drift slowly southeastward over the Bering 
Sea while multiple waves rotate around it. The upper low/trough is
forecast to elongate by early next week as energies shift from the
Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska. This will act to kick a lead 
upper low/trough set to linger over the Gulf through the weekend. 
This upper level pattern will produce several surface low pressure
systems that will track over the Bering Sea/Aleutians to the Gulf
of Alaska. Expect generally unsettled weather for West/Southwest 
through the Aleutians to Southern/Southeast Alaska in this pattern.
There is also some signal to monitor for an aforementioned deep 
low to lift from the north Pacific to the eastern Gulf in a week.

Mainly benign weather is expected for much of northern and 
interior Alaska with relatively higher pressure forecast to 
develop over these regions this weekend into next week. High 
pressure combined with generally southerly flow will result in 
above normal temperatures through the period. 

Schichtel




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html