Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
700 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 12Z Tue 28 Oct 2025 - 12Z Sat 01 Nov 2025


...Stormy pattern for the Gulf of Alaska and South/Southeast 
Alaska next week... 


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

There is reasonable mid-larger scale guidance agreement overall, 
albeit still with one major exception into medium-range time 
scales for the Alaskan domain in an increasingly stormy pattern. A
composite most in line with the 12 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean seems
to provide best continuity and works well for most areas next
week. There is still quite different handling in guidance of a 
deepening north Pacific storm system for Tuesday/Wednesday with 
an envelope of solutions ranging from lifting robustly northward 
into the eastern Gulf of Alaska versus the 12/18 UTC GFS/GEFS 
means that have a more progressive and more eastward shifted path
with much less robust wind/wave and precipitation threats for 
Southeast Alaska. The 12 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean offers a 
seemingly reasonable storm track following other model trends to 
the eastern Gulf of Alaska after collaboration with WFO Juneau. 
This scenraio will be re-evaluated as the variance signal further
improves with newer guidance. Upstream upper flow interaction 
potential seems to favor the more northward lift of the storm.

...Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights...

An amplified northern stream upper low/trough will shift robustly  
southeastward from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska early next
week. Expect lingering unsettled weather for coastal Southwest 
Alaska into the Aleutians and the Alaskan Peninsula. Inland 
impacts do not seem to reach normal hazards thresholds. However, 
downstream northern Gulf of Alaska system genesis offers some
moderate rainfall and wrapping gap wind enhancement. This system
would also influence downstream lifting of the aforementioned 
lead north Pacific deepening storm system up to the eastern Gulf.

Meanwhile, a renewed stormy pattern upstream with deep low
potential is expected to emerge/evolve to threaten the Aleutians 
before gaining strength and evolving steadly downstream mid-late 
next week into next weekend across the Gulf of Alaska. This sets 
the stage for significant maritime hazards and lead into end of 
month heavy precipitation and high winds for eastern SouthCentral 
and especially Southeast Alaska to include heavy mountain snows.

Schichtel




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html