Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1226 AM EST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 05 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 07 2025

...Unsettled weather for the Northwest & Northern California, with
a limited threat for flash flooding into early Friday morning...

...High Wind Watches for the northern Mid-Atlantic & southern New
England states this afternoon into Thursday & northern Montana
Thursday...

...Dryness continues across the southern tier of the country &
portions of the Mid-Atlantic States with generally seasonable
warmth...

The general flow pattern starts zonal, with west to east deep
layer winds crossing the Lower 48, before a broad upper level
trough tries to develop near the Mississippi Valley Friday
morning.  This should keep onshore flow from the Pacific and heavy
rainfall potential across the Northwest down into northern
California, dry downslope winds off the Rockies and much of the
Appalachians.  Weather systems impacting portions of the Great
Lakes and Northeast should have general modest rainfall amounts.

The most active weather lies across portions of the West, with
special emphasis near the coast as a couple of atmospheric rivers
associated with a couple different frontal systems periodically
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Northwest and northern
California which gets wrung out by the coastal ranges.  While the
most significant rainfall/highest wind threat fades during the day
today, a limited severe weather risk exists in the unstable
post-frontal airmass this afternoon as cool air aloft interacts
with the heating of the day.  Precipitation does continue and
eventually picks back up some in intensity Thursday evening into
Friday morning, though thunderstorms are expected to be fewer and
farther between.  Across the Northern Continental Divide, snowfall
is expected at higher elevation through the period.  The potential
for wind gusts exceeding 55 mph on Thursday has led to the posting
of High Wind Watches for northern Montana.

Across the Great Lakes and Northeast, a wave of low pressure
should bring some rainfall to the region today into tonight, with
some higher elevation snow for the Northern Appalachians possible
Thursday morning in the wake of the system.  Thunderstorms are
expected across northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and
southern New England, with some risk of severe weather possible
this afternoon and evening.  Winds are expected to be strong,
which has led to the issuance of High Wind Watches for the
northern Mid-Atlantic States and southern New England from this
afternoon through Thursday morning.  Meanwhile, a system moving
through the Rockies emerges into the Plains Thursday evening,
leading to rainfall across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes late
Thursday into early Friday.  The Gulf should be open sufficiently
for a thunderstorm threat on Friday morning closer to the Ohio
Valley and in the vicinity of Indiana.

The Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast, and the
central/southern Mid-Atlantic States should be dry through the
period with above average temperatures, though precious few record
high temperatures appear to be in jeopardy (mostly in Texas on
Thursday and Friday).  Breezy and dry conditions caused by
downslope flow off the Central Appalachians brings the promise of
elevated fire weather conditions near the Virginia/West Virginia
border on Wednesday afternoon.  In the southern High Plains, a
strengthened downslope off the Rockies could lead to fire weather
conditions near the New Mexico/Texas border Thursday afternoon,
though lack of critically dry fuels could limit the threat.

Roth

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php