Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 31 2026 - 12Z Wed Sep 02 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Great Basin on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern
Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday...

Monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain over parts of the Great Basin through Monday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Great Basin on Monday.  The
Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall means numerous
flash flooding events are possible; many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers, and flooding may include
debris flows in or near recently burned areas.  In addition,
numerous showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest,
Central/Southern Rockies, and Central Plains may produce flash
flooding.

Furthermore, a front will move from the Northern/Central
Plains/Central Rockies to the Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi
Valley/Northern High Plains by Wednesday morning. The boundary
will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Great Lakes
southwestward to the Central Plains on Monday.

On Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop from the
Central Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Over the Lower Great
Lakes, Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic, the showers and
thunderstorms will become severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic from
Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Moreover, weak low pressure over the Western/Central Gulf Coast
will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the
region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over the
Western/Central Gulf Coast on Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable, and landslides on roads. Additionally,
showers and thunderstorms will develop along the coast from the
Southeast/Florida to the Central/Western Gulf Coast Monday through
Wednesday morning.

Additionally, a weakening front will approach the Northwest Coast
by early Tuesday morning, producing rain over the area that will
expand inland to the Northern Intermountain Region by Tuesday
afternoon into early Wednesday. Lastly, heat will build over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on
Monday into Tuesday. In response, Heat Advisories have been posted
over the region.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png